News Business Electric Trucks to Reach Cost Parity with Diesel Faster Than Expected
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Electric Trucks Will Be Cheaper Than Diesel – Decades Ahead of Schedule

By [Author Name]

Published on March 14, 2024

Introduction

Electric trucks, once considered a distant future, are now poised to revolutionize the transportation industry. Recent breakthroughs in battery technology have accelerated their cost competitiveness, bringing us closer to a cleaner, more efficient fleet of heavy-duty vehicles.

Breaking the Barrier: Electric Trucks vs. Diesel

The latest study by Energy Innovation reveals a remarkable shift: by 2030, nearly half of electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks will be cheaper to buy, operate, and maintain than their diesel counterparts. This milestone is decades ahead of previous predictions.

Why the Acceleration?

It all comes down to battery costs. Heavy-duty vehicles require substantial battery packs, making them particularly sensitive to fluctuations in battery prices. Previously estimated at $123 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) by 2030, battery costs have plummeted due to improved production efficiency and declining raw material expenses. The updated forecast now places the cost at $85 per kWh, representing a 31% reduction.

Short-Haul Tractor Trucks Lead the Way

Consider short-haul tractor trucks—the workhorses of urban and regional freight delivery. These trucks, which return to a home base for overnight recharging, benefit from smaller battery capacities. As a result, they are expected to achieve price parity with diesel equivalents by 2030.

Cost Parity and Beyond

While purchase price parity is within reach, electric trucks already outperform diesel vehicles in terms of operating costs. Lower fuel expenses, reduced maintenance, and environmental benefits make them an attractive choice for fleet operators.

The Road Ahead

As electric trucks gain traction, we anticipate a transformative shift in the transportation landscape. By 2035, all new electric freight trucks in Europe are projected to match diesel trucks in performance and capacity. Globally, the electric truck market is set to exceed $3.8 billion by 2030, marking a remarkable journey from its $392 million valuation in 2020.

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